Unfair Grounds: The Case for Reforming US F1 Visa Policies for Africans

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When 74% of students taking a course fails, one would usually expect the teacher to face some scrutiny. It is reasonable that a course cannot be so difficult that almost 8 out of every 10 students fail — especially when those students undertake rigorous prequalifying exams to qualify for the class. That outcome will be indicative of a faulty system. And it will be up to the teacher and the school system to find and fix the faults.

Except this time it is not entirely about schools.

74% of already admitted students from West Africa were denied study visas to the US in 2020

African students looking to study in the US are faced with this exact hurdle. In 2020, 74% of student applicants in West Africa were denied study visas making West Africa the most denied sub-region in the world. Within this subset, Nigeria stands out as the most denied country. In 2023, 75% of student applicants from Nigeria were denied a study visa to the US. Available data is conclusive — African students are disproportionately denied study visa to the US compared to students from other parts of the world.

There are no clear cut answers to why this discrepancy exists. What is indisputable is that African students are unfairly denied and generally get fewer slots every year compared to other regions. For example, while countries like India have seen steady growth over the past ten years resulting in significant increase in the number of study visas approvals, Africa’s growth has been marginal at best. Over this period, India’s share of global F1 visa issued rose from 9.51% in 2014 to 29.35% in 2023 — a 19.84 points growth while Africa’s share grew from 3.54% to 6.79%. In 2023, it meant that India had 130,730 F1 visa issued while Africa had 30,247. This is curious when considering that Africa and India have comparable population (1.5B Africans vs. 1.45B Indians) and economy.

Source: US Department of State — Non-immigrant visa statistics

For Nigeria — the most populous country in Africa, the refusal rate is staggering at 75% in 2023. While there is limited public data to analyze the historical refusal rate for Nigerians, anecdotal evidence however shows that increased denial is the embassy’s response to the increased demand for study visa from Nigerian students. In the last 10 years (2014–2023), the number of annual F1 visas issued to Nigerians has only changed from 5,187 in 2014 to 7,466 in 2023 despite increased demand for F1 visas in Nigeria. At a 75% denial rate, there were over 29,800 F1 visas applications in 2023 from which only 7,466 was approved. The imminent question is — why?

Are Africans assessed differently?

The straight answer to that is yes. African applicants face a higher rejection rate because they are assessed differently. The myth that those denied study visas are not qualified needs to be dismissed at hand. It is nonsensical to suggest that 75% of applicants already vetted and admitted by US universities do not meet the basic criteria for a study visa. An admission into a top university in the US is not a free lunch. It is the result of hard work. Candidates are assessed against ‘opponents’ around the world. Those who get offered admission earned it. It therefore cannot be the case that 75% of already admitted students do not meet the basic requirements for a study visa.

On the contrary, Africans face a higher rejection rate because they are held to increasingly higher standards compared to their peers around the world. In addition, the assessment process lacks objectivity and transparency in general — leaving visa officers (VO) a wide latitude to make discretionary decisions. And because decisions made by VOs are not subject to appeal or review, there is significant bias in the assessment process. In fact, there are those who would argue that there is a subsisting prejudice against Africans, and given the high denial rate, it is hard to argue otherwise.

Source: US Department of State — Non-immigrant visa statistics

In Nigeria, one could waddle through tons of denied candidates and wonder why they were denied. It is made worse by the refusal of VOs to disclose the reason for refusal. From dozens of transcripts reviewed for this piece, one could easily see through the inconsistency in the assessment process. A candidate could be denied at the discretion of the VO for any or no reason. The reasons for most denials usually are — nervousness of candidates, dependency on student loan to meet cost of attendance, non-immigrant intent and the un-discernable reason.

For most VOs, to be nervous during the infamous 3 minute interview is conclusive evidence of dishonesty and therefore constitute sufficient grounds for denial. To be clear — most humans would be nervous when faced with consequential circumstances that are beyond their control. A 3 minute interview at the US embassy is such a circumstance for the average Nigerian applicant. To earn the opportunity of appearing before a VO, a candidate must have invested an average of 9 months in researching schools, seeking academic references, submitting an application, waiting for admission decisions, paying for SEVIS, and finally applying for a US study visa. The average financial cost is in and around $2,285 when considering visa fee ($185), SEVIS fee ($350), admission acceptance fee (average of $1750 — acceptance fee for most schools in the US could range from $500 to $3000) and excluding application fees to different schools and cost of professional exams such as GMAT or GRE. For a low income country like Nigeria, $2,285 is a significant sum.

Approaching the interview under this circumstance and knowing that your efforts over the previous 9 months comes down to a 3–5 minutes conversation with a “stranger” will get anyone nervous — especially knowing that the odds are against you. On any day at the embassy and especially during peak season, it is commonplace to find candidates streaming out with rejection documents. It is therefore not uncommon to find candidates stammering or speaking with heightened pitch or exhibiting other physical symptoms of anxiety during their interview. This would happen to most people when you see roughly 7–8 candidates out of every 10 interviewed getting denied while you wait in line. Who is to say that you’d be different? The interview process is a high pressure environment. The irony is getting rejected for being nervous — a natural response induced by the environment. It begs the question: Are VOs looking for facts or performance?

The next most common reason for denial is candidates’ capacity to cover their cost of attendance (COA). For most candidates around the world, the use of student loans to cover their COA deficit is acceptable. For Nigerians, it is generally not acceptable and only occasionally excused. This is of course an unwritten norm. It is one of those things that applicants learn from their own experience or from the experience of so many others who included student loans in their financial plan and got denied. Consider this candidate (A) for example: First interview at Abuja in June 2024 — A had a deficit of $26,026 — planned to cover $16k personally while relying on $10k student loan to cover the rest. A was denied. Second interview in July — A now has a $20,026 deficit — planned to cover $15k personally while relying on a $5k student loan to cover the rest. A was denied. Third interview in August — A now has additional scholarship from his school which reduced his deficit to $10,026 — an amount he could cover personally. A was finally approved.

For candidates who are unable to rely on family funds to meet their COA deficit (family funds must also come from parents, siblings are usually unacceptable), the way to “beat” the “financial capacity trap” is by competing for full scholarships or graduate assistantship that can cover the COA. And when candidates eventually escape the “financial capacity” condition, the next common reason for denial is proving non-immigrant intent. This is where VOs are able to exercise their discretion and it is hard to convince someone who doesn’t want to be convinced. Proving an intent that is still 2–3 years ahead is a slippery slope. And when there is no other reason to deny a candidate, this is the usual card that is trumped to turn a candidate back. Consider candidate B. B secured graduate assistantship that covered the entire COA for a MA in Art Education. B attended a visa interview in Lagos and was denied for what he assumed to be nervousness during the interview. B scheduled another interview 6 weeks later. B was denied again but this time the VO was clear on why he was denied — VO was not convinced that B would return to Nigeria after completing his studies. For context — B’s entire family is in Nigeria. B had a job to return to after completing his studies and B has an Art based project to run in Nigeria.

There are dozens of other candidates whose reasons for denial are un-discernable. Consider candidate C who was going for a MSc in Computer Science. C attended a visa interview at the Abuja embassy in October 2024 and was denied. Exactly 1 week later (literally 7 days later), C attended another interview in Lagos and was approved. There was no change at all to the material facts of C’s profile. Why was C denied 1 week earlier? Consider candidate D who had a similar situation. D secured full scholarship for the entire COA and was going for MSc in Petroleum Engineering. D attended her first interview in Lagos and was denied. Few weeks later in November 2024, D attended another interview and was approved. Same candidate, same profile. There was no materially significant change to the candidate’s profile.

Candidates C and D were fortunate. There are so many others who were less fortunate even after making second and third attempts after initial denial. Consider candidate E who secured a full tuition scholarship of $60,000 per year for a 2 year Master in Public Policy. E was denied at the second attempt and the VO refused to disclose the reason for denial. E would cover his cost of living from his personal savings and family support. E is an entrepreneur and currently runs a nonprofit in Nigeria working around governance and policy research. E plans to setup an African focused Policy Lab after his program. E’s family is in Nigeria. E doesn’t know why he was denied.

There is a long line of broken dreams littered along the pavement to the US embassy. Candidates are uncertain of what must be done to have their visa approved. They understand that it all comes down to the decision of the VO which may or may not depend on whatever they have to say in a 3–5 minute interview.

How African Students are responding:

Africa has a growing bulge of ambitious young people who are pushing for advanced education and access to new opportunities. For several decades, Africa and most other developing regions have looked towards the West — particularly the United States for inspiration in their quest for development. In science, education, technology, human rights — and democracy — the United States has fueled the aspirations of millions of people and shaped their dreams. This explains why — in spite of the odds — there has been a consistent demand for higher education in the US.

In the past few decades, however, things are changing; Africans are exploring alternative destinations in the face of the harsh conditions they are met with when seeking opportunities in the US. And this goes beyond education. It stretches to alternative governance and development models. China has provided an alternative attraction and Africans are considering it. In education, there has been a steady rise in the number of Africans going to China for higher education since the turn of the century. From only 1,388 African students in 2000, the number of African students in China grew to 49,792 in 2015. By 2018, the number of African students in China exceeded 81,500. While there is limited data on the number of African students in China after the pandemic, the number is expected to grow significantly as the China-Africa relations continue to strengthen.

By and large, talented and ambitious individuals will inevitably find their way in the world. Talents will flow where incentives are better aligned. This is true for African students who are denied access to advanced education in the US. In recent years, China is emerging as a popular alternative destination and for good reasons. Besides the impact of China-Africa Cooperation in education policy drives, China’s increasing investments across multiple sectors of the African economy — (and its emergence as Africa’s no. 1 trading partner) has enhanced China’s reputation and general perception in Africa. In addition, Africans consider China’s path to development to be more relatable. China’s remarkable economic growth and its strides in science and technology has not gone unnoticed. However, the most obvious reason why African students are considering China as an alternative study destination is the relative seamlessness of obtaining a study visa to China compared to the US.

To the extent that the US continues to turn qualified African students away, they will explore alternatives and at the moment, China is emerging as the dominant alternative. In time, this will form a virtuous cycle: as more Africans go to China for studies, the China-Africa relations will continue to improve and strengthen which will encourage more Africans to choose China as their study destination. It is inevitable as well that some of the students receiving advanced education in China will eventually become leaders or occupy positions of influence across Africa and help to grow China’s soft power on the continent.

Lose — Lose: Who wins here?

The high denial rate for African students clearly does not benefit Africans. Neither does it ultimately benefit the US. Human history is mostly the history of migration — exchange of people, culture and ideas — the seeds of innovation. Over the long haul, this process drives cultural progress and economic growth.

Africa is in a race for rapid development. It has fumbled and tumbled along the way and progress has not been as fast as Africans need it to be. Nonetheless, the race is ongoing and it shows good promise. The key to unlocking Africa’s development however is the development of its human capital. Africa needs to build its human capital base to accelerate development and access to advanced education is the catalyst to unlocking Africa’s human capital potential. When the US gate-keeps access to its higher institutions, it hinders Africa’s progress indirectly. While it is true that African students will seek out alternatives in China, Europe and other places, Africa loses time and the potential of talents without the wherewithal to start again after facing multiple rejections.

Africa’s capacity to provide advanced education is unlikely to grow fast enough to meet demand in the short term owing to the steady growth of its youthful population. And as Africa’s economy continues to develop and grow, there will be more students who are able to afford advanced education outside the continent. A number of these students — not all — will return to Africa — some immediately, some eventually — with world class education and meaningful work experience, ready to contribute to Africa’s economic growth. With the difficulty in accessing study visa to the US, this opportunity is stifled for many Africans.

For the US — there are a number of good reasons why the continuing blockade of African students is not in its best interest. The US population is aging quite fast — 1 in 5 Americans will be 65 or older by 2040. This is exacerbated by the US’ declining birth rates. As per 2023 reports, the US fertility rate is at a historic low of 1.62 births per woman. The cumulative effect of this in the short to medium term will result in shortages in the workforce required to sustain economic growth and disruption to US’ social security system among other things. At present, the US Chambers of Commerce already reported a general workforce shortage of about 1.2 million — noting that “If every unemployed person in the country found a job, we would still have millions of open jobs”.

This impacts the education sector as well. With declining birth rates over recent decades, domestic enrollment in US higher institutions is also on the decline. US universities are covering this shortfall by admitting more international students — with over 92% of US higher institutions confirming their plan for increasing international students’ enrollment in the short term. In recent years, international students represent the fifth largest export industry of the US — directly contributing jobs to the US economy. Traditionally, Asia has been US’ biggest market for international students — representing about 70% of all F1 visas issued between 2010 and 2023. Within Asia, China sends more students to the US than any other country until the pandemic in 2020. However, the number of Chinese students coming to the US was already on the decline before the pandemic after reaching a peak of 274,460 (F1 visas issued) in 2015.

China — though the second most populous country in the world — faces a declining birth rate of its own at 1.18 births per woman (2022). In the past two years, China’s population has shrunk. In 2023 alone, China shrunk by over two million — the highest decline since the Great Famine in the early 1960s. The combination of this decline and China’s increasing capacity to meet its local demand for advanced education partly accounts for the decline in the number of Chinese students coming to the US since 2016. While the number of Chinese students coming to the US is rebounding since the pandemic, it is unlikely to reach its pre-pandemic levels.

India has experienced a surge since the pandemic — eclipsing its pre-pandemic peak of 74,831 in 2015 to reach 80,451 (F1 visas issued) in 2021. In the two years following 2021, India replaced China as US’ biggest market in Asia. While India’s declining birth rate is not as acute as that of China and the US, it is sufficient to flatten demand over the next few years. The other major markets for the US in Asia — South Korea, Japan and Saudi Arabia — all face similar challenges: aging population, low birth rates and increasing capacity to meet local demand for advanced education. In fact, countries like Japan has launched its own drive to enhance international students’ recruitment as part of its strategy for curbing its domestic shortfalls. All factors considered — US institutions will be compelled to look at other markets for new growth in the coming years.

Conversely, Africa has the fastest growing population in the world. Africa’s population is also young — at a median age of about 19.2 — the youngest in the world. This presents a remarkable opportunity for growth — both for Africa and countries that partner with the continent to provide access to advanced education for Africans. Africa is unlikely to grow fast enough to meet short term demand for advanced education for its young people. African students will look for such opportunities where they can find them. And it is a matter of fact that some of these students will return to Africa while others will remain in their host country. Both options are beneficial to Africa in their unique ways. This is why Africa is such a compelling opportunity for the US — a young and ambitious group of students who are determined to access advanced education and make their contributions to the world. This group is able to contribute to the US in more ways than one — add direct value to the economy during their study period (direct spend and various support service providers that they help to support); for those who will choose to stay back — help reduce workforce shortages — especially in high or specialized skills sector; and finally help to boost US higher institutions enrollment. These are tangible benefits that will accrue to the United States when it unblocks African students.

A Fair & Transparent Process:

At the end of the day, what African students seek is not a free ticket to the US, but a fair and transparent process to the US. Today, African students are being unfairly denied study visas to the US. This benefits no one. Everyone benefits however if the US unblock the path to the US for qualified students. This can happen if the US reviews the F1 visa assessment process — making it fair and transparent by using objectively assessable criteria for its evaluation. This will include the review of the following aspects of the current assessment process:

• 1. Financial Capacity: a good number of applicants are denied for lack of financial capacity to pay their way through school. Applicants from other parts of the world depend on student loans to meet their financial requirements. African applicants however are mostly penalized when they use student loans. It is therefore important to review the following:
• Are Africans allowed to use student loans to cover their COA deficit?
• If yes, is there a limit to the amount of student loan they can take? Is the limit a flat amount like $20,000 per year or a fraction of the COA — like 30% of the COA?
• Can other relatives apart from direct parents act as sponsors for students?
• 2. Non-immigrant intent: This is the flimsiest reason why a vast number of African students are denied. It is simply impractical to prove a future intent. There is no way to know for sure what a person will do 2 years from now. At best, people make plans but plans do change with time. It is therefore crucial to excuse this requirement or create a definitive checklist that can be objectively assessed to prove nonimmigrant intent — such as having at least one family member in the home country.
• 3. Full disclosure: When applicants are denied, they should have the right to know the reason for their denial. This way, they can know what to do better or differently next time. It is very curious why this is not already the case.
• 4. Review at a fee: Applicants who feel they have been unjustly or wrongly denied should have access to an appeal or review process at a reasonable fee. If not for any other reason, human processes are prone to human errors and if an error has been made, there should be a way to correct it.

The goal at the end of the day is to administer a honest, fair and transparent assessment process as objectively as possible. There is no gainsaying that the current assessment process lacks objectivity and transparency and therefore is susceptible to bias and prejudice. By relying on some minimum undeniable evidence that can be objectively assessed in the assessment process, the tendency for bias and prejudice will be significantly reduced or removed.

The United States is still the preferred destination for most African students — it just isn’t the only destination anymore. Inefficiencies in the visa process shouldn’t force African talents to go elsewhere. For policy makers and advocacy groups — this is precisely the time to act and push for change.

References:

• Anshan, L (2018). African Students in China: Research, Reality, and Reflection. African Studies Quarterly | Volume 17, Issue 4|February 2018
• Bhandari, R. et al. (2024). The Interview of a Lifetime: An analysis of visa denials and international student flows to the U.S.
• Goodman, A. E. & Martel, M. (2024). Outlook 2030 Brief: The U.S. and International Education. Institute of International Education
• Non Immigrant Visa Issuance Data — US Non-Immigrant Visa Statistics
• Waruru, M (2024). Numbers of African students in China expected to grow as ties increase Retrieved from The Pie.